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Disruptive changes to an existing industry seem to happen more and more often, and while some businesses seem eager to jump onto new trends early on, others try to hold out for as long as possible. A study of the American retail industry’s adoption of e-commerce and the rise of online retailing provides some interesting insights into how that disruption worked.

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It feels like we have moved on from the inflation shock caused by gas supply disruptions in late 2021 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The ECB and other European central banks have stopped hiking rates and natural gas prices have declined to lower, though not cheap levels. Yet, a study by two researchers from the Bank of Italy indicates that we may not yet be in the clear.

I tend to think of myself as pretty good at reading charts, but the chart I want to discuss today had me stumped when I first saw it, and every time I go back to it, I still need a moment to get my head around it. But if you are a fund selector, an asset allocator, or a CIO, you definitely should try to understand what this chart has to say.

It feels odd to talk about stock market bubbles at a time when stock markets are not really trading at high valuations (at least not in Europe). But as we all know, while the stock market may be reasonably priced, individual stocks can still be in a bubble. One thing that drives share prices, particularly when they are in a bubble, is the narrative around the stock. And once narratives have taken over, there is fertile ground for rumours.

There are so many areas in life where we know we can reduce losses and avoid harm by taking preventative action, yet we wait and wait until it is too late. Think of disability insurance, which costs relatively little when compared to the potential loss of income if we become temporarily or permanently disabled.